Типичная ошибка при прогнозировании воздействия на экономику и общество какой-нибудь новой технологии или проекта заключается в том, что неявно предполагается, что в будущем все останется как было, а изменения будут связаны только с предметом рассмотрения, что очевидно не так. Поэтому формирование различных образов будущего, комплексных сценариев развития экономики и общества принципиально важно.

Если говорить еще о некоторых шагах по ускорению приближения желаемого будущего, то первое, что хотелось бы отметить – это новый этап в развитии непрерывного образования, который позволил бы использовать максимум из появляющихся в мире результатов исследований и новых практик.

Мне в этом плане нравится идея основателей московской Школы системного менеджмента о целесообразности прохождения «второго бакалавриата» в формате ДПО, который позволял бы, скажем раз в 10–15 лет, системно актуализировать набор базовых, а не только отдельных узкопрофессиональных компетенций, с учетом новых появившихся подходов в разных отраслях знаний.

Думаю, уже сейчас это решительно необходимо, например, тем, кто готовится стать директором по развитию в своей компании, а также тем, кто отвечает за управление изменениями, кого за рубежом называют Chief Reinvention Officer.

Плюс еще один важный алгоритм, помогающий движению вперед, наряду с проведением собственных оригинальных исследований – это проведение бенчмаркинга, системное выявление лучших практик и проведение с их учетом пилотных проектов для возможного тиражирования действующими организациями. То есть обеспечение ускоренной адаптации появляющихся в России и мире новых конкурентных преимуществ и успешных технологических решений.

Владимир Вайнер: На этой позитивной ноте менеджмента изменений мы заканчиваем нашу встречу. Если такой формат кажется значимым, мы можем повторять его онлайн, офлайн и в любой точке мира. Это кажется правильной задачей по приближению горизонта будущего.

Текст подготовила журналист Татьяна Печегина

Leading economists and futurologists met at the session organized by the Positive Changes Journal and devoted to the main topic of the special issue – the economy of the future. Will there be an increase in prosperity and where will it lead? What are the trends in economic development? What should be envisaged while building an economic development scenario? Will the economy of the future become human-centered? Are the fears of artificial intelligence justified? How will space be explored? What do we need to do to bring the kind of future we like closer? The panelists discuss this and much more. The conversation was facilitated by Vladimir Vainer, director of the Positive Changes Factory. The editorial staff publishes a transcript of the conversation.

Vasily Burov

Futurologist, advisor at the Moscow Institute of Electronics and Mathematics, HSE University, co-founder of the Information Culture NGO

Artem Shadrin

Director of the Institute of Social and Economic Design, HSE University

Kirill Ignatyev

Futurologist, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Russian Investments Group, head of the Technical Progress and Future Economy project

Vladimir Vainer

Positive Changes Factory, Director

Vladimir Vainer: What phenomena today can be seen as signs of the economy of the future? Which of the signs will definitely lead to it, which of the trends are we to strive for, and how do we bring them closer?

It is interesting to talk about a future that is not obvious, but that can be made obvious. The way I see it, predictions can be made over a timespan of two generations. This is a kind of practical, motivational vector, so that, as they say, our children’s children are proud to say: "Our fathers invented all this back in the day.”

Kirill Ignatyev: I agree, and I would add that in the context of the economy of the present and the future, it is a good idea to measure today and tomorrow by technological paradigms. The current technological paradigm started at the end of the last century with the emergence of mobile communication and the Internet; now there is a period of transition, after which the last generation of this technological paradigm will inevitably leave and a new one will arrive. When power passes to a generation twice as young, the most important next step will follow. It defines a lot – we do not measure economic history in centuries anymore.

Artem Shadrin: Two things seem most significant to me: first, economic growth, technological development, growth in prosperity will continue with any forecast short of a catastrophe. Therefore, one of the trends will be a reduction in the amount of time people devote to paid work in the traditional model, and an increase in the share of leisure time, or activities motivated by non-economic considerations – charity, volunteerism, etc.

As the overall wealth increases, it will become possible to choose a job that may bring more satisfaction and less money. In other words, a higher average salary will be losing its significance in favor of other factors, such as a comfortable team – colleagues, management, atmosphere, and understanding of the importance of the activity carried out, its creative, non-routine nature.

The second important thing is that you will have to change faster, to be more flexible if you want to be the winner, including an economic victory. Thus, the number of enterprises for which continuous changes become the norm and which are transformed from force majeure to the practice of regular management will increase all the time. Further spread of mechanisms such as agile, corporate entrepreneurship, and corporate universities will continue.

On the other hand, in the conditions of rapid changes, small and medium-sized businesses, startups, which are more motivated and faster decision-makers than many large enterprises, will gain additional competitive advantages. This additionally raises the priority of dedicated startup financing mechanisms, such as venture capital financing and business angel investment, helping those players who are early in the enterprise lifecycle to reach a scale that allows them to operate successfully.

To summarize, an answer will be provided to the challenge associated with the need to consider the intangible, motivational component in the work. And the transformation of management tools of large companies will be guaranteed, which will lead to an acceleration of corporate innovation.

Vasily Burov: I think the story about social relationships, about involving people in the public, is very important. Right now, our general, and the one a little younger, are basically the last people to have an idea of what it is like not to be in touch all the time. It is a story about social relationships, about mutual help, etc. When the need for intermediaries linking people at different times and places disappears, it greatly changes social behavior and horizontal social relationships. New relationships have not yet been born, but there is a kind of substitute for them. I am talking specifically about the human-to-human communication in a network which has never been as dense as it is now.