In the evening, Rutra sat on the board. Yarovitovich was the moderator, as always. Those present sat in semi-darkness, wearing hoods.

– Happy future, colleagues," Yarovitovich began with a greeting. – Today's board should approve the final version of our action plan. Let's listen to the variants of a possible scenario and make decisions. I understand perfectly well that each of you has already discussed it many times, researched it, and with the involvement of well-known world institutions, but it is necessary for all of us to listen together at the board in order to make a joint decision. So, let's begin. Gentlemen, I ask you to listen to an approximate version of the consequences for the population in the event of a radical change in our plan, namely, if we have to shoot down missiles over Russia. You have the floor, my colleague.

A light built into the table lit up in front of the speaker, a man with a beard, wearing a pyramid-shaped hood, began his report.

– Gentlemen, colleagues, like-minded people, let me remind you that the Doomsday Clock shows half a minute to midnight. The position of the hands on its symbolic dial is determined by the editorial board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists at the University of Chicago, which once included the creators of the first atomic bomb. Half a minute to midnight is an alarming number. There are several reasons for the current switch. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists board of directors justified its decision by the fact that the nuclear powers are modernizing and expanding their arsenal of nuclear weapons. Does this mean that nuclear war is really close at hand? If two years ago one could almost unequivocally say "no" to this question, now confidence in the unreality of such a scenario has significantly weakened. So: if there is a war tomorrow. Let's imagine that the irreparable has happened: nuclear war has started and American warheads are about to successfully reach their target. In this case, first of all, all forces will be thrown to ensure the safety of the country's leadership. After ensuring the safety of the country's leadership, qualified personnel, without whom the economy cannot function, will be evacuated. Alas, in the event of a sudden nuclear strike, the civilian population will have a hard time – the fortified bunkers will accommodate only a few people. The main measure to save the civilian population is its emergency evacuation 300 kilometers away from the epicenter of the explosion. In general, in the event of a sudden attack in urban areas, only people in fortified shelters, i.e. qualified personnel and management representatives, will be saved. If we talk about large cities, the only hope for the ordinary population remains the subway, but not all of them, but only deep subway stations.

The man thought for a moment and continued:

– The experience of detonating a nuclear bomb at the Totsk test site showed that over the next several decades, the incidence of cancer increased several times in people living in the area. This experiment shows that the use of nuclear weapons in a populated area is not an inevitable death sentence for all its inhabitants. It is important to understand that the use of an atomic bomb in a more densely populated area would, first of all, destroy buildings and people within a radius of several kilometers, but still would not make rescue measures meaningless. The only case in the history of the USSR when the methods of shielding the population from the radiation threat were actually applied is the Chernobyl disaster. The Civil Defense forces performed the evacuation scenario before the nuclear bomb explosion, and it is in it that the three-day period appears. The fact is that the activity of radionuclides formed during the explosion of a uranium charge decreases a thousand times in three days. Of course, even in case of timely evacuation a large number of human casualties cannot be avoided. Civil defense forces will start burying the bodies of the dead three days after the nuclear strike. The mass graves will be huge. According to a model compiled by British colleagues, an attack on Moscow would be carried out with 48 Trident ballistic missiles launched from submarines. The model assumes that the number of casualties in the 12 weeks after the explosion would be 4 million. The contamination of water supplies and the destruction of residential buildings will cause an increase in the incidence of all kinds of diseases, because radiation has a detrimental effect on the human immune system. In reality, the number of victims may significantly exceed the above figures.

– Thank you, thank you," Yarovitovich stopped him. – As they say, no one is forgotten, nothing is forgotten. I take it you have everything?

– Yes, Your Honor.

– Thank you. Let's move on to the next option.

– Another presentation on the topic of impacts, in particular climate change, from our colleague, the Master of the Academy of Sciences. You have the floor.

Yarovitovich did not turn his face, did not point at anyone. It was not quite clear how the next speaker realized that he had been given the floor. Apparently, there was one Master of the Academy of Sciences on the board. The area on the table in front of him lit up.

– I present to your attention a study on the topic "Nuclear War – Possible Climate Change". For many decades the threat of nuclear catastrophe has been hovering over mankind, and scientists of different specialties and all countries have tried to estimate its possible size. Direct destruction and mass deaths during atomic explosions, murderous radiation, diseases and many other things that await mankind in the outcome of a nuclear war have been repeatedly subjected to careful analysis. The conclusions have been horrifying and have disturbed great masses of people. And yet the published results did not provide a clear answer to the question of the possible fate of human civilization after nuclear war. The impression was created that a nuclear war could seemingly end with the victory of one of the warring countries. This created illusions and could be a source of tragic designs. With all the possible variants, no one from military and political strategists considered the option that a nuclear war would have such climatic consequences that mankind would in no way survive! In the late 70s, the Max Planck Institute of Physical Chemistry began to seriously study the phenomena of large-scale fires. The phenomenon of occurrence and development of a large-scale fire with sufficient oxygen, for example, in a forest with a strong wind, was called a fire tornado. Fire tornadoes have the following peculiarity: they eject a huge amount of soot-like material into the upper atmosphere and the stratosphere. The soot that rises into the atmosphere is practically impervious to sunlight. In other words, on the surface of the Earth under the canopy of these clouds, even on the sunniest day it will be darker than on an inclement moonless night. Naturally, not receiving light and heat, the surface of the Earth under the soot clouds will begin to cool down quickly. Hypothetically possible events will occur – "nuclear winter" and "nuclear night". After formation of soot clouds, the Earth's surface will cease to be heated by solar rays and the temperature will drop sharply. Already in the first month the average temperature of the land surface in the northern hemisphere may decrease by 15-20 and even by 25 degrees Celsius, and in some places remote from the oceans – by 30-35 degrees. As a result, the biosphere will receive such a blow that it is unlikely to recover and return to its original state. If life can survive on land after a nuclear catastrophe, it will be in a very damaged form. In any case, the higher animals will not survive the catastrophe. One can think that the same fate will befall the living world of the ocean. Indeed, the initial link of all oceanic trophic chains is phytoplankton. But it will most likely perish, although the ocean temperature will change only slightly. The reason for its death will be different: for more than a year phytoplankton will be deprived of sunlight – the basis of its vital activity. A nuclear strike on the biosphere dramatically changes the path of its evolution. The consequences cannot be predicted in every detail. The biosphere will probably not disappear altogether. However, it will undergo such a qualitative reorganization that will exclude the possibility of further existence of higher animals and plants, which will probably perish during the nuclear winter. It goes without saying that the same fate will befall man, no matter where he is, whether in the United States or Russia, South Africa or Australia. No matter where in the world a nuclear strike occurs (with or without retaliation), its climatic consequence will be a "nuclear winter" that humanity will not be able to survive. In addition to the climatic consequences of a nuclear strike, there would be devastating concentrations of radiation that would exceed the lethal dose over a large area of the Earth's surface, explosions of nuclear power plants, epidemics, and much more. My report is finished," the speaker said and fell silent.