В будущем наличие серьезных трений в вооруженных силах может вынудить армию остановить военные операции, либо спровоцировать мятеж или государственный переворот. Любой вариант означает лишь проблемы для Пакистана как государства. Столь же печальным и дестабилизирующим будет ослабление политической структуры общества, которая и так уже находится под постоянной угрозой возникновения экономического кризиса, обострения этнических, сектантских и провинциальных проблем. И это при том, что у дверей стоит «Аль-Каида».

Совершенно очевидно, что борьба за «душу» Пакистана быстро не кончится. Два радикальных исламских процесса продолжат противоборство, то сдавая, то захватывая территорию в ожидании благоприятного момента, когда можно будет нанести решающий удар.

Время играет на руку «Аль-Каиде». Она может ждать до тех пор, пока государство Пакистан, которое уже потеряло контроль над территорией примерно в 20 000 квадратных километров⁴⁰, не исчезнет окончательно. Кроме того, у «Аль-Каиды» имеются идеологические и боевые союзники, такие как «Харкат ул-Джихад-ал-Ислами» (HUJI) и «Лашкар-и-Тайба» (LET).

Что же касается «могольской группы», то она находится перед дилеммой: защищать интересы страны или веру (как это ни странно, но со схожей экзистенциональной дилеммой столкнулись JI и ее союзники летом 1947 года).

Примечания

¹ Nasr, Vali, International Relations of an Islamist Movement: The Case of the Jamaat-i-Islami of Pakistan, Occasional Papers Series., Council on Foreign Relations. New York, 2000.

² Sadia Nasir, Rise of Extremism in South Asia, IPRIPaper, Islamabad Policy Research Institute, October 2004.

³ Ayesha Jalal, Partisans of Allah,: Jehad in South Asia, Permanent Black (India), 2008.

⁴ Ahmed Rashid, Descent into Chaos: The United States and the Failure of Nation Building in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asia, Viking, 2008.

⁵ Vali Nasr, The Vanguard of the Islamic Revolution: The Jama'at-i Islami of Pakistan, University of California Press, September 1994.

⁶ Kalim Bahadur, Islamisation of Pakistan: A case study of Punjab, ORF Issue Brief, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi, 2007.

⁷ Vali Nasr, The Vanguard of the Islamic Revolution: The Jama'at-i Islami of Pakistan, University of California Press, September 1994.

⁸ Sushant Sareen, The Jihad Factory, Pakistan's Islamic Revolution in the making, ORF-Har-Anand Publications, 2005.

⁹ Ibid.

¹⁰ AG Noorani, Contours of militancy, Frontline, September 30-October 13, 2000.

¹¹ Syed Vali Nasr's The Vanguard of the Islamic Revolution: Hassan Abbas, Pakistan's Drift into Extremism: Allah, the Army, and America's War on Terror, Pentagon Press, India, 2005.

¹² Rubina Saigol, The State and the limits of Counter-Terrorism: The Case of Pakistan and Sri Lanka, Council of Social Sciences Pakistan (COSS), Islamabad, 2006.

¹³ Muhammad Amir Rana, Jihad-e-Kashmir of Afghanistan, Mashal Books, Lahore, 2002; another good reference is Sushant Sareen, The Jihad Factory, ORF-Har Anand, New Delhi.

¹⁴ Wilson John, Coming Blowback: How Pakistan is endangering the world, Rupa, 2009.

¹⁵ Wilson John, Caliphate's Soldiers: Documenting Lashkar-e-Tayyeba's Long War (under publication): Muhammad Amir Rana, Jihad-e-Kashmir of Afghanistan, Mashal Books, Lahore; another good reference is Sushant Sareen, The Jihad Factory, ORF-Har Anand, New Delhi.

¹⁶ Arif Jamal, Lashkar- charity work, source of man and money power, The News on Sunday, February 2005.

¹⁷ Ibid.

¹⁸ Major General Akbar Khan, Raiders in Kashmir, National Book Foundation, Islamabad, 1970. He wrote:»"…our agricultural economy was dependent particularly upon the rivers coming out of Kashmir. The Mangla Headworks were actually in Kashmir and the Marala Headworks were within a mile or so of the border. What then would be our position if Kashmir was in Indian hands?»"

¹⁹ Speeches and statements of Field Marshal Ayub Khan, Vol. 5, Pakistan Publications, Karachi, 1962.

²⁰ Hussain Haqqani, Pakistan-Between Mosque and Military, Vanguard Books, Lahore, 2005.

²¹ Syed Vali Nasr's The Vanguard of the Islamic Revolution.

²² AR Siddiqui, The Military in Pakistan-Image and Reality, Vanguard Publications, Lahore,1996; Lt. General Faiz Ali Chishti, Betrayals of Another Kind, Asia Publishing House, London, 1989. Lawrence Zirring, Pakistan in the Twentieth Century-A Political History, Oxford, 1999; 1. FS Aijazuddin, The Shifting Qiblah, Islamisation under General Zia ul Haq and Secularism under General Pervez Musharraf-The Pakistani Experience, Paper presented at Conference on the Future of Secularism, Yale Center for International and Area Studies and Yale Center for the Study of Globalization, Yale University, March 26-27, 2004.

²³ Ibid.

²⁴ Arif Jamal, One per cent option, The News, July 18, 1999.

²⁵ Shuja Nawaz, Pakistan and army: a changing relationship? Daily Times, May 4, 2008; Shuja Nawaz, Pakistan's Army: fighting the wars within, Seminar, April 2008.

²⁶ Shuja Nawaz, Crossed Swords: Pakistan, its Army, and the Wars Within, Oxford University Press, 2008.

²⁷ Lieutenant Colonel Ab Razak bin Mohd Khairan (Royal Malaysian Air Force), The Influence of Islam in the military, comparative study of Malaysia, Indonesia and Pakistan, PhD Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, US, March 2004.

²⁸ Ibid.

²⁹ Major Amer Nawaz, Leader Development Process in Pakistan Army at the Tactical Level, student thesis, Army Command and General Staff College, Fort Leavenworth, US, 2004.

³⁰ Steve Coll, Ghost Wars, Penguin, 2004. CIA's declassified documents on the subject are available at Georgetown University's National Security Archives.

³¹ Brigadier Abdul Rehman Bilal, LIC and Pakistan Army, NDC Journal, Summer 2004.

³² David Sanger, The Inheritance: The World Obama Confronts and the Challenges to American Power, Harmony, 2009. Sanger, a New York Times correspondent, referred to a transcript given to Mike McConnel, the Director of National Intelligence in May 2008, which had Pakistan Army chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani calling Taliban leader Jalaluddin Haqqani as a «strategic asset».

³³ Ashley Tellis, Pakistan's Record on Terrorism: Conflicted Goals, Compromised

Performance, The Washington Quarterly, Spring, 2008; Taliban threaten to convert Pakistan into another Afghanistan, Chinese Central TV4, April 28, 2009; Army official calls Baitullah Mehsud, Fazlullah 'patriots', The News, December 1, 2008; Ahmed Rashid, Pakistan's Continued Failure to Adopt a Counterinsurgency Strategy, CTC Sentinel, Vol 2. Issue 3. March 2009.

³⁴ Hassan Abbas, Defining the Punjabi Taliban Network, CTC Sentinel, Volume 2,

Issue 4, April 2004; Wilson John,, Concerted International Action Needed to Rein in Pakistan Terror Groups, ORF Policy Brief, Feb. 17, 2009.

³⁵ Wilson John, Caliphate's Soldiers: Documenting Lashkar-e-Tayyeba's Long War (under publication): Muhammad Amir Rana, Jihad-e-Kashmir of Afghanistan, Mashal Books, Lahore; another good reference is Sushant Sareen, The Jihad Factory, ORF-Har Anand, New Delhi.

³⁶ Ibid.

³⁷ Wilson John, Caliphate's Soldiers: Documenting Lashkar-e-Tayyeba's Long War (under publication): Muhammad Amir Rana, Jihad-e-Kashmir of Afghanistan, Mashal Books, Lahore; another good reference is Sushant Sareen, The Jihad Factory, ORF-Har Anand, New Delhi.